On Whose Timetable?, and Campus Showdown
On Whose Timetable?
Iran conspicuously moves offensive military assets in ostensible preparation for the major attack on Israel they promise is coming. This against a background of frequent public assurance the destruction of the Jewish state is at hand. The regime is now making unprecedented public reference to a progressing military nuclear program, one about which our Director of National Intelligence for the first-time omitted assurance of its pause instead observing Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”
Hezbollah is more aggressive still in rhetoric and action. Non-stop missile and drone attacks on Israel’s north and even beyond. Public release of menacing reconnaissance videos of Israeli civilian and military installations. And just two days ago this ominous 4-minute video of its vast network of underground military tunnels with disciplined terrorists driving motorcycles and trucks loaded with missiles as the narrator, translated from Arabic into both English and Hebrew, threatens "Israel will face a destiny and reality it didn't expect any day...from the Lebanese border to the Jordanian border. To the Red Sea, to Kiryat Shmona, to Eilat."
No lack of saber rattling, maneuvering and attacks from Israel’s enemies long sworn to its destruction. The question now seems only when, not if, a definitive confrontation is coming. Former ambassador to this country, award winning author and historian, Michael Oren, in this post asks whether we are at a 1967 or 1973 moment. Will Bibi Netanyahu prove to be Levi Eshkol or Golda Meir? Will he pre-empt the seemingly inevitable, starting a war on Israel’s terms risking complete international isolation, including from the current US administration, to earn its own security and the respect and appreciation of all if victorious? Or will he determine the risk of going it alone is too great and accede to the timetable of Israel’s enemies, absorb the first strike(s), and require the IDF to begin the coming showdown on its back foot?
Dan Senor’s latest podcast focuses on the animating force behind it all, Iran. His interview of Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) Executive Director, Jonathan Schanzer, explores the alternative scenarios which may play out. Will Iran facilitate a de-escalation today to postpone final reckoning until it is in a stronger position tomorrow? Will it choose to intensify the ring of fire with which it has surrounded Israel by further unleashing its multiple proxies and fight to the last Arab (Iran is Persian)? Will it attempt to manipulate an American administration, whose Iran policy and much of its staff are Obama presidency holdovers, by exploiting a continued fantasy of integrating Iran into the family of nations? Or will Iran leverage all the current distractions and a seemingly risk averse, lame duck president to make a break for the bomb over the next few months?
Of course, Israel also has a vote. Glide missiles destroying Iranian radar installations intended to detect them. An honored guest of the state blown up in his bed in the heart of Tehran. A cyber shut down a few days ago of Iran’s Central Banking system. As the storm clouds gather and Iran’s nuclear program progresses can we expect more high profile, regime-embarrassing initiatives from Israel, and will they cause Iran to change its calculus?
Campus Showdown
Further to my last post on the emerging spine steeling of University administrators born of months of campus chaos, the Wall Street Journal just published this piece on the change of protest policies and addition of constructive debate programming in colleges across the country from The University of Denver, to Indiana University, to Harvard. This will all be put to the test soon as indications are that anti-Israel activists are, if anything, more emboldened and fully intend to resume their disruptive demonstrations when the new semester begins. This activism is not limited to students or even campus outsiders. As Vanderbilt Chancellor, Daniel Diermeier, has made clear, academic politicization lead by faculty is a larger threat to the integrity of institutions of higher education and their ability to accomplish their core mission. To wit, this post:
Can @Penn please explain why their faculty are openly promoting terrorism? The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) is a US-designated terrorist group The post is from UPenn Faculty for Justice in Palestine.